Predictions Revisited and Sweet Sixteen Power Rankings

LOCKE: Come here. I'm going to show you something. What do you suppose is in that cocoon, Charlie?
CHARLIE: I don't know, a butterfly, I guess?
LOCKE: No, it's much more beautiful than that. That's a moth cocoon. It's ironic, butterflies get all the attention; but moths -- they spin silk, they're stronger, they're faster.

I recently watched The Moth as part of my off-season re-watch. When I first heard Locke’s description of the moth cocoon, I thought that Locke was speaking about himself. In White Rabbit, he recently passed up a chance for leadership and instead mentored Jack into that role. Locke had decided to be the strong, independent provider rather than the focus of everyone’s attention, and he was happy with his decision. Upon watching it again with the context of Season Three fresh in my mind, I could not help but stumble upon a different interpretation. Lost is full of butterflies, who go to great lengths to get our attention, and moths, who go largely unnoticed despite all of the beauty they bring to the show. During Round Two of the DarkUFO Character Cup, we witnessed a few of our most beloved Moths die out, but we can take solace in the fact that a few of them remain.

Round Two Predictions Revisited

The Pretenders: Libby (9%), Liam (11%), Penny (13%), Boone (14%), Aaron (18%), Cindy (23%), Hawking (31%), Vincent (38%),

I was not surprised to see any of these characters suffer defeat in the second round. However, it was a bit surprising to see that none of these bottom eight characters squared off against each other. It was an equally unlikely outcome to see that none of the top eight characters faced off against each other in Round Two, either. This development had two major effects the second round. First, it ensured another series of blowout victories over the past week. However, the collision course between the top characters cannot be avoided, only postponed. The second impact was to ensure that some major characters from the middle of the pack would be eliminated early.

The Spoilers: Cooper (6%), Tom (11%), Alpert (24%), Mikhail (35%), Christian (46%), Rousseau (56%), Smoke Monster (62%), Ethan (69%).

Before the second round, I identified eight secondary characters as potential spoilers, and eight main characters as The Pack. I still think that any one of these characters could have advanced or fallen given the right match-ups. There were two possible routes to become a bona fide spoiler in this tournament. The first route, taken by Ethan and the Smoke Monster, involves beating up on the characters below them. Perhaps Mikhail, Tom, Alpert, Cooper, and Christian could be representing the Spoilers in Round Three, if they had managed to face the likes of Vincent and Hawking. The second route, taken by Rousseau alone, involves beating a main character outright. While Danielle’s feat is more impressive, I think Rousseau stumbled upon one of the few main characters she could have defeated. Christian Shephard nearly pulled off the same type of upset against Walt, but he could not close the gap. Still, 46% is pretty respectable for a guy who has been dead for the duration of the series.

The Pack: Sun (30%), Jin (42%), Claire (44%), Walt (54%), Charlie (58%), Kate (65%), Michael (77%), Eko (89%).

A few main characters from the Pack were bound to fall during Round Two. Claire, Sun, and Jin turned out to be the sacrifices that the Cup demanded. If the match-ups had been reversed, I think that this trio of characters could have easily replaced Walt, Michael, and Kate in the third round. However, it seems fitting to watch Claire and the Kwons fall from this round of the tournament. Claire, Sun, and Jin represent the human element of the Lost through their family attachments. We have already seen that character-based episodes like Par Avion and The Glass Ballerina can be easily forgotten amidst all of the razzle-dazzle of Season Three. Even though the relationships between parent-and-child or husband-and-wife make our world what it is, most of us would prefer to watch the Butterflies.


Sweet Sixteen Power Rankings

16. Ethan – The Blank Slate

Ethan Rom is perhaps the only remaining character without a truly defined personality. The series has shown us a few glimpses of Ethan’s actions, but very little sense of his motivations. We know nothing of the Other Man’s past as an individual apart from his membership with his group, and it is most likely that we never will. As such, Ethan’s popularity comes from his mysterious nature; you can read as much or as little into his relevance as you wish. Even so, Ethan is due for elimination. He just might be popular enough to eliminate someone like Michael for instance, but I doubt it.

15. Smoke Monster – The Novelty

Whenever the Smoke Monster enters a Match-up in the Character Cup, a small contingent of voters is bound to voice their objections. Is Cerberus a character? If it is a character, then how are we supposed to judge its merit? If this competition were an Acting Cup, then there would be no controversy about this issue. The Smoke Monster defies categorization as one of Lost’s most unique creations. The island’s security system has displayed characteristics of both mechanical objects and biological creatures. At the very least, the Smoke Monster seems to have something in common with the vast majority of the remaining competitors: Smokey is a murderer as well. However, I don’t think anyone would list the Smoke Monster on a list of their ten favorite characters, so its inclusion in the Elite Eight seems far-fetched. (Note: At the time of posting, it became clear that the Smoke will be eliminated from the tournament.)

14. Michael – The Judas

There are three main categories of reasons to vote for Michael. The first justification is to say that Michael Dawson is ultimately a good guy who was thrust into an impossible situation. The second way is to say that Michael may have made some very bad choices, but he will find a way to redeem himself in the future. The third route is to say that even though Michael is ultimately a bad person, he still makes for an extremely interesting character. Personally, I tend to alternate back and forth between all three of these sentiments. Michael’s story has done wonders to improve the series, and he deserves recognition as one the show’s top characters. Even so, I think Michael has advanced as far as he can in this tournament, barring some major luck.

13. Walt – The Boy Wonder

Walt Lloyd is by far the youngest participant in this contest. His inclusion in the Sweet Sixteen is a credit to the work of young Malcom David Kelley and the writers behind the scenes. As far as 10-year old characters go, Walt is more interesting to watch than any other of his television peers. It is interesting to consider what might happen if certain characters could have been considered as pairs rather than individuals. The Michael-Walt combination might be a lot stronger than either of the two characters separately, just as Rose-Bernard, Boone-Shannon, Aaron-Claire, and Sun-Jin might have improved their relative chances. Although, rather than live together in this tournament, these characters were destined to die alone. Walt, like his father, is due for elimination in the face of stronger competition in Round Three.

12. Rousseau – The Bracket Buster

The poster ‘Radzinsky’ commented that Danielle Rousseau deserves consideration as a Contender in this tournament. That argument is not without its merits. Danielle Rousseau’s track record in this contest so far seems to reinforce that notion. She earned a record 98% of the votes against Susan in Round One, and then defeated a main character, Claire, courtesy of 56% of the voters. As a non-main character who never received a flashback episode, it is extremely difficult to gauge her popularity. I still stand by my prediction that Danielle, like the rest of the Spoilers, has no realistic chance at making the Final Four. She could luck out and beat someone like Kate, but, even then, the odds would be against her.

11. Eko – The Forgotten One

If the Character Cup took place immediately after Season Two, Mr. Eko might have stood a realistic chance of winning the whole tournament. Currently, though, he seems like a long shot to make the Final Four. There are several factors that contributed to his fall from favor. Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje did not want to make a long-term commitment to the series, so many fans might harbor some resentment against the actor. Through no fault of his own, Eko’s arc coincided with what most people consider to be the low-point of quality for the series, the bulk of Season Two and the mini-season to introduce Season Three. His ultimate demise seemed quite pointless and arbitrary rather than meaningful and poignant like Charlie’s death. As such, Eko has become the forgotten one. His story seemed to exist in its own separate universe, without much of a connection to the larger mythology. His impact on the series now exists only in our memories.

10. Kate – The Wild Card

Indecisiveness is one of Kate Austen’s defining characteristics, so it seems fitting that opinions on her are decidedly mixed. The poster ‘Cyrus’ argued that Kate is more of a contender in this tournament than Juliet, and it’s easy to see why someone would think so. The general consensus seems to be that Kate was once an outstanding character, but she has since regressed due to some questionable choices by writers. Many of Kate’s strongest moments have been her interactions with other female characters, but her contributions to most episodes center around the men in her life. Even viewers obsessed with the love triangle seem to focus upon the positive qualities of the male characters without explaining why they should be interested in Kate in the first place. Kate certainly has been an important character throughout all three seasons, but we have not seen enough development to distinguish herself from the big names above her.

9. Charlie – The Long Shot

Charlie Pace also has been an integral component of the series throughout all three seasons. If you were to graph Charlie’s relative popularity over the course of three seasons, the graph would most likely form the shape of a V, with peaks at the beginning of Season One and the end of Season Three. Season Two’s Fire and Water probably represents the low point for his appeal (and, in many opinions, the series itself). The Island has shown time and again that it likes to tear characters down before building them back up. Charlie had hit rock bottom, but he enters this contest at the height of his appeal. Ranking him as one of my personal favorites, and taking into account his famous death, I was tempted to include Charlie among the Contenders. He might stand a slim chance of beating some of the characters above him, but I think each of those characters ultimately will be too strong. Charlie’s Death won the Best Scene award, but I doubt whether this tournament could become the Charlie Pace Memorial Cup.

8. Jack – The Mayor

Just as Charlie has already earned recognition in the Best Scene awards, Jack Shephard’s influence previously dominated the DarkUFO Episode Cup. Jack’s flash-forward episode in the Season Three finale easily won the highest prize for an individual episode (and many of his other episodes put forth good showings as well). Uniquely, Through the Looking Glass was universal enough to appeal equally to the Jack fans and the Jack haters alike. The Character Cup does not afford him that luxury. It would probably be too much for even the strongest Jack supporter to expect him to come out on top in both Cups. As G-Man pointed out, we can expect that the approximately 18% of voters who voted for Aaron Littleton last round will vote against Jack no matter what the opponent.

7. Juliet – The Queen Bee

If there was any doubt that Juliet currently ranks as the most popular female character, Juliet put that doubt to rest with her 70-30 victory over Sun. To me, this outcome was the most surprising result of the tournament so far. I predicted that Juliet would win the match-up, but it was a shock to see her win by such a large margin. Juliet received far more than twice the number of votes as her counterpart, which indicates that her popularity is incredible at the moment. To me, the Juliet-Sun battle represents the best example of a Butterfly beating a Moth. Plenty of razzle-dazzle intrigue surrounds the Juliet character, while Sun’s story is much more down-to-earth. There was a time when the show could focus almost exclusively on character without delving into the mythology. As one poster phrased it, remember when all you had to give was a flower?

6. Desmond – Mr. Congeniality

Desmond continued his strong showing as he dispatched Libby without much difficulty. Desmond Hume certainly has a lot of things going for him and very few things working against him. He possesses winning looks, a good-hearted personality, and a special power, which help him appeal to three major types of voters. If Desmond does go down in the next two rounds, we will certainly hear a large outcry from a number of voters. G-Man even played upon these emotions, by hinting that Desmond might have to face Locke in Round Two. Desmond is absurdly popular, but he still seems bound to fall when he eventually faces one of the more central characters.

5. Sayid – The Dark Horse

Sayid Jarrah absolutely dominated his appearances in the first two rounds. He decimated Leonard with 96% of the vote, and then destroyed a much stronger opponent, Boone, with 86% of voters. Henry Holland aside, it is difficult to find anyone who dislikes Sayid. He’s not only as strong and intelligent as anyone else, but his stories are also as deep and conflicted as almost any other character. If we were voting on the most underutilized character, or the character who most deserves additional screen time, Sayid might win that honor. Much like Rousseau, I have difficulty predicting exactly how Sayid would fare against some of the other main characters. Realistically, Sayid could still walk away with the Cup.

4. Sawyer – Mr. Popular

I can’t escape my increasing suspicion that Sawyer is going to win the Cup. He previously defeated Locke in a major poll at IMDB.com. He benefits from a strong group of female (and some male) fans who will vote for their man against any opponent. He earned the highest number of votes in Round Two, against a pretty formidable opponent in Anthony Cooper. I would not have expected that Cooper would garner the lowest vote total in the second round, but he received only a small fraction of the ballots against his younger counterpart. To put this in perspective, Cooper was not only a flashback character, but an actual participant on the island as well. As a villain, Cooper even overshadowed Ben’s evil in The Brig. Even still, those factors only convinced 6% of voters to prefer him over James Ford.

3. Ben – The Unstoppable Force

Ben’s popularity seemed to increase exponentially over time since his first appearance as Henry Gale in Season Two. After Juliet’s defection and Ethan’s death, Ben Linus remains the sole active representative for the Others camp. In Every Man For Himself, The Man From Tallahassee, One of Them, The Brig, and The Man Behind the Curtain, Ben steadily became a darker and darker force on the island. Depending on the swing vote, he might be able to beat any other opponent in the Cup right now. Undoubtedly, nearly every fan hopes to see plenty more from him in Season Four.

2. Hurley – The Immovable Object

If you were to make a graph of Hurley’s relative popularity over the course of three seasons, it would most likely form a horizontal line near the top of the chart. Even in the light of some mediocre flashback episodes, Hurley remains near the top of almost everyone’s rankings. The most recent survey in the Polls section of this site offers some insight into exactly why so many people love him. He currently leads all other characters in that poll with 24% of voters who picked Hurley as the ‘character you see most as yourself’. Even though I didn’t vote for him, I understand this appeal. Take, for instance, Hurley’s reaction to Arzt’s demise (“Dude, that was messed up. He just exploded right in front of us.”). I would expect that a number of viewers had the exact same reaction during the commercial break. Now, some people would argue that identification with a character has no real bearing on our character preferences. (Methosrocks and Nicolas even found the idea offensive, for example.) I, however, believe that our character preferences do reflect our own value systems indeed, and Hurley will benefit greatly from the contingent of voters who identify with him so strongly.

1. Locke – The Face of Lost

The photo of Locke from Round Two showed Locke at his absolute worst moment. He had just made the biggest mistake of his life, and caused the death of his new family member. Even at his weakest, though, audiences still love him. His picture won the Best in Show Award because of his flaws and not despite them. I made my case for Locke in my previous post, and my prediction remains unchanged after Round Two. Can any other character expect to sway more than half of the voters to vote against John Locke? Hurley, Ben, and Sawyer stand the best chance, but he is likely to edge them all out. He’s not as attractive as Sawyer, not as diabolical as Ben, and not as likeable as Hurley, but none of those factors will likely matter in the end. John Locke has always been one of the Moths on Lost, but the fan-base has always treated him like a Butterfly.