Predictions and Reflections on the DarkUFO Character Cup

DarkUFO’s Character Cup (sponsored by G-Man) has provided a great way for fans to continue to reminisce and discuss the show over the course of this excruciatingly long hiatus. Even though there were only a few battles during Round One (Boone’s valiant comeback against Marvin Candle and Hawking’s decimal victory over Arzt), many of the discussions in the comments section have provided top-notch debates about some unexplored issues on our favorite show. The most frequent point of contention was: why should a person prefer one character over another? Should we pass moral judgments on these individuals? Should we evaluate the quality of the writing or acting? Should we only assess past contributions, or should we try to predict future performance? Should we vote for the most attractive characters? G-Man took the proper laissez-faire attitude towards these questions. All of these elements come into play when defining our character preferences. All character preferences are personal, and no one is wrong (or less intelligent) for showing love for a particular character.

Predictions: Looking Ahead to Round Two

Thirty-two characters remain now that Round One has concluded. The past two weeks of voting and debate offer a significant sample size to try to make some predictions about the remainder of the tournament. Margin of victory is important, but strength of opponent might be an equally important factor. From this field of 32, I intend to sort out the contenders from the pretenders. I anticipate that I might take some heavy criticism for these predictions. I am sure that at least a few readers will take issue with my evaluations of their favorite characters. It is a credit to the show’s creative minds that Lost generates such emotional involvement with its characters. Let me be clear: these predictions reflect my judgment on the feelings of the show’s fan base rather than my own personal preferences for the characters.

The Pretenders: Hawking (50%), Boone (53%), Cindy (60%), Aaron (64%), Libby (66%), Penny (74%), Liam (81%), Vincent (88%).

All of these characters faced favorable opponents, and are very fortunate to make it to the second round. They should all just happy to be here, because their spots could have easily been filled by some of the other eliminated characters. Unless they can square off against each other, they’ll soon be joining the rest of the gang.


The Spoilers: Cooper (81%), Ethan (82%), Tom (83%), Christian (85%), Mikhail (86%), Alpert (91%), Smoke Monster (96%), Rousseau (98%).

None of these characters stands a decent chance to making it to the Final Four. However, there’s no telling how many beloved characters they might eliminate before that round. Each of them are wild cards that might be able to take out some of the more overexposed main characters.


The Pack: Eko (67%), Claire (73%), Sun (75%), Kate (78%), Michael (81%), Walt (92%), Jin (92%), Charlie (92%).

Any of these characters might stand a reasonable chance at advancing to the Final Four if they stumble upon the right series of match-ups. It is tough to make many quality distinctions about these characters. None of them should have a real shot at winning it all, but they should all put up a hell of a fight on the way out. (Odds as a group: 100 to 1)


The Contenders: Sawyer (83%), Ben (85%), Jack (87%), Juliet (88%), Sayid (95%), Desmond (96%), Locke (96%), Hurley (97%).

In my estimation, only these eight characters stand a decent chance at going all the way to the Finals. I will look at the reasons why each of these characters could win, and why each one probably will not.

Jack: To his credit, Jack Shephard has been the series’ lead character since the Pilot. Jack has the largest number of appearances and the largest flashback total. He also has the good fortune of competing with perhaps his best episode, Through The Looking Glass, fresh in viewers’ minds. On the downside, though, Jack also suffers from a strong and very vocal group of haters. Unlike Ben, audiences do not love-to-hate him, but instead they hate-to-hate him. Hating Ben makes a person more likely to vote for Ben, but hating Jack ensures that a person will vote for anyone intead of him. The Jack haters are bound to sway a close match-up into an upset before the Finals. (Odds: 25 to 1)

Juliet: Although the male actors have been given most of the best parts, the female characters should not be overlooked. Personally, I don’t consider Juliet to be the best female character; I would rank her behind Sun, Kate, Claire, and possibly Ana in terms of the quality of their contributions to the series. However, the chances for Sun, Kate, and Claire all suffer from viewer fatigue in response to predictable dialogue and repetitive storylines. Juliet will most likely benefit from competing for the Cup at the height of viewer interest in her character. Her status as a strong woman in the boy’s club could either help or hurt her chances. (Odds: 20 to 1)

Desmond: At the finale of Season Two, the series treated audiences to an unprecedented two-hour flashback episode for a previously unknown character. Since that time, Desmond has ranked as one of the most widely loved characters. Henry Ian Cusick received an Emmy nomination for his performance, albeit in the Guest Actor category. Desmond is characterized as a genuinely kind person just trying to make his way home to his true love. Unlike most other characters, we have not seen much of a dark side from him yet, which will probably help him garner a large number of votes. Nevertheless, with a small catalog of episodes to his credit, it would be difficult to envision Desmond climbing all the way to the top. (Odds: 10 to 1)

Sayid: After Season One, Naveen Andrews became the first of a short list of Lost actors nominated for Emmy awards. Currently, though, Sayid represents something of a Dark Horse candidate, because he has not received nearly as much screen time as some of the other main characters over the past two seasons. Sayid tends to leave audiences clamoring for more. The writers always tease viewers by showing his potential for greatness, only to stash him in the background soon afterwards. Ultimately, I don’t think Sayid has shown enough character development in order to sway more than half of the voters to his side. He should be able to beat almost any character from the pack, but he will probably fall against one of the heavyweights. (Odds: 10 to 1)

Sawyer: Sawyer is probably disadvantaged by the format of the Cup. He ranks number one on a lot of people’s lists, but his appeal is less universal than many characters. He would stand a much better chance at winning a multi-character poll than a series of elimination rounds. Many fans consider the Sawyer-Kate relationship to be the best aspect of the show, while others rank it as one of the worst. His nicknames represent a major drawing point to the show for some viewers, while others regard them as an annoying distraction. Most likely, these polarizing qualities will probably hurt him down the road against a more well-rounded character. (Odds: 8 to 1)

Ben: Ben suffers from the same problem as Sawyer. He is supported by a strong base of very vocal fans who rank him as number one, but many viewers do not even consider him a top ten character. Moreover, Ben is a latecomer to the series, and has only appeared in less than half the number of episodes as some of the original cast members. As a clear-cut villain, Ben defies many of the comparisons made among the crash survivors. Many fans love to hate him, and many fans love to love him. His future is uncertain, and the majority of his past remains unknown. Emerson also benefits from a recent Emmy nomination, though, and might be entering this competition at the apex of his popularity. (Odds: 8 to 1)

Hurley: Quite simply, how can anyone vote against Hurley? Hurley is probably the most universally likable character on the show. It is very hard to make any criticisms against Hugo as a person. Within this cast of flawed and tortured souls, Hurley remains an optimist with a lot of depth underneath his naiveté. However, he might rank less highly when judged as a dramatic character. In general, his flashback episodes tend to separate audiences between those who enjoy his lighthearted antics and those who criticize it as ‘filler’ material. No matter what the match-up, though, when his smile pops up on the front page, he will be nearly impossible to eliminate. (Odds: 5 to 1)

Locke: John Locke might actually exceed Ben and Sawyer in terms of his appearances at the top of favorite character lists. Many fans credit the episode Walkabout as the turning point that transformed them into fans for life. The series would certainly look much different without his inclusion. Terry O’Quinn holds the unique distinction of earning Emmy nominations in two separate seasons. Both his past contributions and his future potential on the show stack up favorably against anyone else. Although Locke is not without his critics, he does not attract nearly as much hate as Jack, Ben, or Sawyer. Perhaps the best argument in favor of Locke is the following: Sawyer, Ben, Jack, Juliet, Sayid, Desmond, and Hurley would all work fairly well as characters on other television shows. If any of those characters died, then Lost could continue onward without much difficulty. Locke, however, possesses such an intense and unique connection to the world of Lost that it is hard to imagine the show and his character existing separately. Lost is a special show, and the John Locke character helped make the show what it is, more than any other. When people think back and remember Lost ten years from now, which character will come to mind first? Have we ever seen a character quite like John Locke? Will we ever see another character like him again? (Odds: 4 to 1)

Prediction: John Locke
Preference: I would be happy to see any of my personal favorites (which happen to be Locke, Jack, Eko, Sawyer, Sayid, or Charlie) win the Cup.


Reflections: Looking Back at Round One

The Rodney Dangerfield Memorial “I get no respect” Awards
for Great characters that should have received more votes:
Paulo (12%), Shannon (15%), Ana-Lucia (26%), Bernard (34%), Ms. Klugh (40%), Dr. Arzt (50%).

Acceptance Speech by Shannon Rutherford and Leslie Arzt:
SHANNON: Why don't you believe me? I need you to believe in me. You don't! No one does. They think that I'm some kind of joke. They think I'm worthless. You say that now, but you don't -- you're just going to leave me. I know as soon as we get out of here you're just going to leave me.
ARZT: You know what? I'm sorry, I'm sorry that I'm not cool enough to be part of your merry little band of adventurers. I know a clique when I see it. I teach high school, pal-y. You know, you people think you're the only ones on this island doing anything of value. I've got news for you. There were 40 other survivors of this plane crash. And we are all people, too.


The Liam Pace Wannabe “Why couldn’t I have faced Randy?” Awards
for Decent characters with an unfortunate opponent:
Nadia (8%), Yemi (12%), Marshall (14%), Jacob (17%), Widmore (17%), Cassidy (18%), Paik (19%), Kelvin (22%), Rose (25%), Alex (33%).

Acceptance Speech by Marshall Edward Mars:
MARSHALL: You don’t look free to me, Kate. I’m going to die, right? So, are you going to do it, or what?


The George Costanza “My presence at work can only hurt my chances of promotion” Awards
for characters who received more votes due to less screen time:
Steve (15%), Candle (47%), Hawking (50%), Cindy (60%), Libby (66%), Penny (74%), Alpert (91%), Smoke Monster (96%)

Acceptance Speech by Richard Alpert:
ALPERT: Where exactly are we? I can't tell you that. But what I can tell you is that, you'll see things there that you never imagined. Now, no one is forcing you to do anything, so if you change your mind we're happy to take you back to...


The Danny Pickett “Thanks for Showing Up” Awards:
Susan (2%), Naomi (3%), Jae Lee (4%), Leonard (4%), Pickett (4%), Nikki (5%), Helen (8%), Karl (9%), Malkin (13%), Steve (15%), Roger (19%), Randy (19%), Sarah (36%).

Acceptance Speech by Scott Jackson:
SCOTT: Well thank you for at least remembering our names. No wait, I’m Scott. Steve’s the dead one. You mean, I wasn’t even invited?


I hope you enjoyed reading. Please feel free to comment with your own predictions and reflections. Ultimately, the Character Cup is not much more than a popularity contest, but it is a fascinating one at that.