Friday, August 24, 2007

Predictions and Reflections on the DarkUFO Character Cup

DarkUFO’s Character Cup (sponsored by G-Man) has provided a great way for fans to continue to reminisce and discuss the show over the course of this excruciatingly long hiatus. Even though there were only a few battles during Round One (Boone’s valiant comeback against Marvin Candle and Hawking’s decimal victory over Arzt), many of the discussions in the comments section have provided top-notch debates about some unexplored issues on our favorite show. The most frequent point of contention was: why should a person prefer one character over another? Should we pass moral judgments on these individuals? Should we evaluate the quality of the writing or acting? Should we only assess past contributions, or should we try to predict future performance? Should we vote for the most attractive characters? G-Man took the proper laissez-faire attitude towards these questions. All of these elements come into play when defining our character preferences. All character preferences are personal, and no one is wrong (or less intelligent) for showing love for a particular character.

Predictions: Looking Ahead to Round Two

Thirty-two characters remain now that Round One has concluded. The past two weeks of voting and debate offer a significant sample size to try to make some predictions about the remainder of the tournament. Margin of victory is important, but strength of opponent might be an equally important factor. From this field of 32, I intend to sort out the contenders from the pretenders. I anticipate that I might take some heavy criticism for these predictions. I am sure that at least a few readers will take issue with my evaluations of their favorite characters. It is a credit to the show’s creative minds that Lost generates such emotional involvement with its characters. Let me be clear: these predictions reflect my judgment on the feelings of the show’s fan base rather than my own personal preferences for the characters.

The Pretenders: Hawking (50%), Boone (53%), Cindy (60%), Aaron (64%), Libby (66%), Penny (74%), Liam (81%), Vincent (88%).

All of these characters faced favorable opponents, and are very fortunate to make it to the second round. They should all just happy to be here, because their spots could have easily been filled by some of the other eliminated characters. Unless they can square off against each other, they’ll soon be joining the rest of the gang.


The Spoilers: Cooper (81%), Ethan (82%), Tom (83%), Christian (85%), Mikhail (86%), Alpert (91%), Smoke Monster (96%), Rousseau (98%).

None of these characters stands a decent chance to making it to the Final Four. However, there’s no telling how many beloved characters they might eliminate before that round. Each of them are wild cards that might be able to take out some of the more overexposed main characters.


The Pack: Eko (67%), Claire (73%), Sun (75%), Kate (78%), Michael (81%), Walt (92%), Jin (92%), Charlie (92%).

Any of these characters might stand a reasonable chance at advancing to the Final Four if they stumble upon the right series of match-ups. It is tough to make many quality distinctions about these characters. None of them should have a real shot at winning it all, but they should all put up a hell of a fight on the way out. (Odds as a group: 100 to 1)


The Contenders: Sawyer (83%), Ben (85%), Jack (87%), Juliet (88%), Sayid (95%), Desmond (96%), Locke (96%), Hurley (97%).

In my estimation, only these eight characters stand a decent chance at going all the way to the Finals. I will look at the reasons why each of these characters could win, and why each one probably will not.

Jack: To his credit, Jack Shephard has been the series’ lead character since the Pilot. Jack has the largest number of appearances and the largest flashback total. He also has the good fortune of competing with perhaps his best episode, Through The Looking Glass, fresh in viewers’ minds. On the downside, though, Jack also suffers from a strong and very vocal group of haters. Unlike Ben, audiences do not love-to-hate him, but instead they hate-to-hate him. Hating Ben makes a person more likely to vote for Ben, but hating Jack ensures that a person will vote for anyone intead of him. The Jack haters are bound to sway a close match-up into an upset before the Finals. (Odds: 25 to 1)

Juliet: Although the male actors have been given most of the best parts, the female characters should not be overlooked. Personally, I don’t consider Juliet to be the best female character; I would rank her behind Sun, Kate, Claire, and possibly Ana in terms of the quality of their contributions to the series. However, the chances for Sun, Kate, and Claire all suffer from viewer fatigue in response to predictable dialogue and repetitive storylines. Juliet will most likely benefit from competing for the Cup at the height of viewer interest in her character. Her status as a strong woman in the boy’s club could either help or hurt her chances. (Odds: 20 to 1)

Desmond: At the finale of Season Two, the series treated audiences to an unprecedented two-hour flashback episode for a previously unknown character. Since that time, Desmond has ranked as one of the most widely loved characters. Henry Ian Cusick received an Emmy nomination for his performance, albeit in the Guest Actor category. Desmond is characterized as a genuinely kind person just trying to make his way home to his true love. Unlike most other characters, we have not seen much of a dark side from him yet, which will probably help him garner a large number of votes. Nevertheless, with a small catalog of episodes to his credit, it would be difficult to envision Desmond climbing all the way to the top. (Odds: 10 to 1)

Sayid: After Season One, Naveen Andrews became the first of a short list of Lost actors nominated for Emmy awards. Currently, though, Sayid represents something of a Dark Horse candidate, because he has not received nearly as much screen time as some of the other main characters over the past two seasons. Sayid tends to leave audiences clamoring for more. The writers always tease viewers by showing his potential for greatness, only to stash him in the background soon afterwards. Ultimately, I don’t think Sayid has shown enough character development in order to sway more than half of the voters to his side. He should be able to beat almost any character from the pack, but he will probably fall against one of the heavyweights. (Odds: 10 to 1)

Sawyer: Sawyer is probably disadvantaged by the format of the Cup. He ranks number one on a lot of people’s lists, but his appeal is less universal than many characters. He would stand a much better chance at winning a multi-character poll than a series of elimination rounds. Many fans consider the Sawyer-Kate relationship to be the best aspect of the show, while others rank it as one of the worst. His nicknames represent a major drawing point to the show for some viewers, while others regard them as an annoying distraction. Most likely, these polarizing qualities will probably hurt him down the road against a more well-rounded character. (Odds: 8 to 1)

Ben: Ben suffers from the same problem as Sawyer. He is supported by a strong base of very vocal fans who rank him as number one, but many viewers do not even consider him a top ten character. Moreover, Ben is a latecomer to the series, and has only appeared in less than half the number of episodes as some of the original cast members. As a clear-cut villain, Ben defies many of the comparisons made among the crash survivors. Many fans love to hate him, and many fans love to love him. His future is uncertain, and the majority of his past remains unknown. Emerson also benefits from a recent Emmy nomination, though, and might be entering this competition at the apex of his popularity. (Odds: 8 to 1)

Hurley: Quite simply, how can anyone vote against Hurley? Hurley is probably the most universally likable character on the show. It is very hard to make any criticisms against Hugo as a person. Within this cast of flawed and tortured souls, Hurley remains an optimist with a lot of depth underneath his naiveté. However, he might rank less highly when judged as a dramatic character. In general, his flashback episodes tend to separate audiences between those who enjoy his lighthearted antics and those who criticize it as ‘filler’ material. No matter what the match-up, though, when his smile pops up on the front page, he will be nearly impossible to eliminate. (Odds: 5 to 1)

Locke: John Locke might actually exceed Ben and Sawyer in terms of his appearances at the top of favorite character lists. Many fans credit the episode Walkabout as the turning point that transformed them into fans for life. The series would certainly look much different without his inclusion. Terry O’Quinn holds the unique distinction of earning Emmy nominations in two separate seasons. Both his past contributions and his future potential on the show stack up favorably against anyone else. Although Locke is not without his critics, he does not attract nearly as much hate as Jack, Ben, or Sawyer. Perhaps the best argument in favor of Locke is the following: Sawyer, Ben, Jack, Juliet, Sayid, Desmond, and Hurley would all work fairly well as characters on other television shows. If any of those characters died, then Lost could continue onward without much difficulty. Locke, however, possesses such an intense and unique connection to the world of Lost that it is hard to imagine the show and his character existing separately. Lost is a special show, and the John Locke character helped make the show what it is, more than any other. When people think back and remember Lost ten years from now, which character will come to mind first? Have we ever seen a character quite like John Locke? Will we ever see another character like him again? (Odds: 4 to 1)

Prediction: John Locke
Preference: I would be happy to see any of my personal favorites (which happen to be Locke, Jack, Eko, Sawyer, Sayid, or Charlie) win the Cup.


Reflections: Looking Back at Round One

The Rodney Dangerfield Memorial “I get no respect” Awards
for Great characters that should have received more votes:
Paulo (12%), Shannon (15%), Ana-Lucia (26%), Bernard (34%), Ms. Klugh (40%), Dr. Arzt (50%).

Acceptance Speech by Shannon Rutherford and Leslie Arzt:
SHANNON: Why don't you believe me? I need you to believe in me. You don't! No one does. They think that I'm some kind of joke. They think I'm worthless. You say that now, but you don't -- you're just going to leave me. I know as soon as we get out of here you're just going to leave me.
ARZT: You know what? I'm sorry, I'm sorry that I'm not cool enough to be part of your merry little band of adventurers. I know a clique when I see it. I teach high school, pal-y. You know, you people think you're the only ones on this island doing anything of value. I've got news for you. There were 40 other survivors of this plane crash. And we are all people, too.


The Liam Pace Wannabe “Why couldn’t I have faced Randy?” Awards
for Decent characters with an unfortunate opponent:
Nadia (8%), Yemi (12%), Marshall (14%), Jacob (17%), Widmore (17%), Cassidy (18%), Paik (19%), Kelvin (22%), Rose (25%), Alex (33%).

Acceptance Speech by Marshall Edward Mars:
MARSHALL: You don’t look free to me, Kate. I’m going to die, right? So, are you going to do it, or what?


The George Costanza “My presence at work can only hurt my chances of promotion” Awards
for characters who received more votes due to less screen time:
Steve (15%), Candle (47%), Hawking (50%), Cindy (60%), Libby (66%), Penny (74%), Alpert (91%), Smoke Monster (96%)

Acceptance Speech by Richard Alpert:
ALPERT: Where exactly are we? I can't tell you that. But what I can tell you is that, you'll see things there that you never imagined. Now, no one is forcing you to do anything, so if you change your mind we're happy to take you back to...


The Danny Pickett “Thanks for Showing Up” Awards:
Susan (2%), Naomi (3%), Jae Lee (4%), Leonard (4%), Pickett (4%), Nikki (5%), Helen (8%), Karl (9%), Malkin (13%), Steve (15%), Roger (19%), Randy (19%), Sarah (36%).

Acceptance Speech by Scott Jackson:
SCOTT: Well thank you for at least remembering our names. No wait, I’m Scott. Steve’s the dead one. You mean, I wasn’t even invited?


I hope you enjoyed reading. Please feel free to comment with your own predictions and reflections. Ultimately, the Character Cup is not much more than a popularity contest, but it is a fascinating one at that.

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Good Men vs. Great Men Revisited

I posted this essay immediately following the airing of The Brig. Obviously, the final three episodes (The Man Behind the Curtain, Greatest Hits, and Through the Looking Glass) revealed more than a few new elements to discuss. I always intended to go back and revise this theory, and I now finally had the chance to revisit my predictions and make new ones. Allow me to summarize the original theory. I first proposed the following premise: “Nearly all of the male characters are struggling with the same conflict: would they prefer to become a great man or a good man? I propose to use this lens to analyze each of the island’s male inhabitants. Looking at each character, we see a complete spectrum of different responses to this question. To some degree, this analysis should help to illuminate some of the overall direction of the series.” I then examined how each man on the show chose to define their own value system. To conclude, I commented that a viewer’s reactions and preferences towards these moral conflicts enable us to explore our own value systems. I still stand by my conclusion. Here are a few new comments after the most recent developments.

First off, in recent months, many people have criticized me for my supposedly ‘black-and-white’ moral stances. If you read my writing carefully, though, I do not presume to be any sort of authority on moral questions. In this essay, I did not seek to impose my own personal judgments on these characters. I was merely commenting upon the way in which the characters view themselves, and the manner in which they make decisions. I set out with the assumption that a man can choose to define his own life in terms of either being ‘good’ or achieving greatness. The notion of the ‘good man’ attracted the most criticism. The show gives us very specific clues as to whether these men would prefer to consider themselves as either ‘good’ or ‘great’. I would like to reiterate that my description of a ‘good man,’ does not stem from my own moral judgments, but from my analysis of how these characters set out to lead their lives.


Under Charlie, I wrote: “Charlie specifically expresses his desire to be a good, respectable family man, but we still watch him fall and stumble throughout the series. The lesson is clear: once you have chosen greatness, the path back to becoming a good man can be long and arduous.”

In the final two episodes of the series, Charlie completed his journey towards fulfilling his own ideal of moral good. In Charlie’s view, being a good man means looking out for your family members rather than yourself. Charlie perceived Claire and Aaron to be his family, and he made the ultimate sacrifice to ensure their safety. Whether or not we agree that his death was necessary, his motivations for dying certainly seem pure. It is important to note that Charlie lists what is ostensibly the ‘greatest’ achievement of his life, musical success, at number 5 on his lifetime list. Clearly, Charles Hieronymus Pace was a man who assigned higher value to his relationships with friends and family than to his own personal success.


Under Michael, I wrote: “After losing Walt again, though, Michael commits murder and thus sacrifices his soul. Michael once gave up a chance at greatness in order to be with Walt, and later gave up his moral goodness to be with Walt once again. I hope that we have not heard the last from Michael, but that the writers give him a chance to redeem at least one part of his destroyed soul.”

Spoiler Alert! I, for one, was very happy to hear that Harold Perrineau will be returning to the cast of Lost in Season Four. This development ensures us that Michael Dawson’s journey is not yet complete. As much as he tried to convince himself that he did what he ‘had to’ do, we see the struggle and the remorse expressed all over his face. Seemingly, the only way that a man can make up for murdering his allies would be to do the opposite: risk himself to save the lives of his allies. I hope that all hope has not been lost, and the story offers Michael an opportunity to earn our forgiveness. Sadly, though, I would guess that the only way that Michael can redeem himself would be to sacrifice himself in a similar manner as Charlie. His actions will send the right message to his son that principles are worth maintaining. I’m sure that Michael understands that part of being a good father is protecting your children, but another part of being a good father rests in setting the best example for them.


Under Sawyer, I wrote: “Let us hope that his soul has not been damaged so much that he cannot resume his life as James Ford that was interrupted as a small child. Mr. Eko found peace on the island, but James might lack Eko’s courage.”

I think that this prediction describes Sawyer’s character arc since The Brig quite well. I stand by my prediction and I think that the story of James’ identity crisis will carry over well into the fourth season. Essentially, James needs to decide which identity represents his true self. If he continues to go by the name Sawyer and to lead a life with no defined moral standards for himself, then Cooper will have won the ultimate battle for his soul. Ironically, although the death of the original Sawyer released Locke from Cooper’s influence, the man from Tallahassee still dominates the mind and life of James Ford more strongly than ever.

Under Locke, I wrote: “As a final gesture of his rebirth on the island, Locke moved beyond good and evil when he conned Sawyer into eliminating Cooper. In his own words, Locke has moved on to his own journey now. This action put the final nail in the coffin for the old Locke, a good man limited by his own insecurities, and the island Locke, a great man of limitless potential.”

Even though Locke managed to escape the shadow of his past, he still remains in the process of achieving his potential on the island. The beginning of The Man Behind The Curtain showed Locke as a man of action, ready to challenge Ben for leadership on the island. Locke’s own words embody his current value system: he cares about what is ‘supposed to happen’ and not what he ‘should’ do. John did not show any hesitation to turn his knife on Naomi, but still he could not bring himself to murder his friend Jack in cold blood. The standoff shows that, no matter how strongly Locke believes in the greatness of his cause to protect the island, he still clings to his old notions of right and wrong. Locke seems to have come full circle back to the same predicament at the end of Further Instructions: he is the ‘hunter’ who cannot pull the trigger.


Under Jack, I wrote; “Jack Shephard was once the moral center of the show, but he has since moved to the background of season three. Many viewers have responded angrily against Jack’s latest character developments. […] However, I still have faith in both the writers’ talent and in Matthew Fox’s acting ability. As recently as Enter 77, people were making similar complaints about Locke’s character, but he has returned better than ever. Quite simply, the show would not dedicate the two-hour season finale to Jack flashbacks unless there was a great tale to be told. Locke foiled Jack’s most recent plan, but I’m sure the good doctor has another one brewing. The show has boasted about Jack’s greatness, but Through the Looking Glass will finally be the time to demonstrate that greatness.”

I wish I could say that this prediction was dead-on, and it did turn out to be mostly correct. I accurately predicted that the changes in Jack over the middle of Season Three turned out to be a clever ruse by the show’s writers. The show manufactured tension by casting temporary doubt on Jack’s intentions, only to restore that faith in time for the finale. As I said, the good doctor did have another plan brewing, and neither Locke nor Ben could prevent it from coming to fruition. The season finale displayed Jack winning a battle of wills against his two nemeses (while also arriving at an understanding of his third nemesis, Sawyer). He stared down Ben and Locke without fear, and he did everything necessary to lead his people to rescue.

Of course, if Jack had been completely successful, though, then there would be no need to continue the series. So, inevitably, he must begin to face a new conflict afterward. The finale was brilliantly planned and executed. The on-island action showed Jack achieving his potential as a leader, while losing control over himself at the same time. He became so obsessed with caring for his people that he could no longer take care of his own sanity. To compound matters after leaving the island, all the people he saved (including his past loves Kate and Sarah) abandoned him in his darkest hour. I have read many people interpret the ‘moral’ of Through the Looking Glass as the following: if you act like Jack, you’ll end up to be a drug-addict loser! I will try not to comment on the sadistic, insecurity-masking, self-esteem boosting qualities of the Jack haters (sorry, too late). Instead, I will focus on the one major point of the flash-forwards that these viewers seem to have missed. Those scenes did not show Jack falling into a chemically-dependent and suicidal state, but they showed him taking the first steps to climb out of that state. He achieved his moment of clarity and decided to course-correct his own life. Jack has now learned where he stands: he believes in destiny, and he believes that the island gives his life its purpose. I expect this direction to represent the general trend for most characters in the fourth season.


Under Ben, I wrote: “Most people are eagerly anticipating The Man behind the Curtain in hopes that it will provide answers to the island’s mysteries. However, I, for one, hope that something different comes from Ben’s flashbacks. Specifically, I want to learn how and why Ben arrived at his current Machiavellian ubermensch state. I can accept Ben as a static character only up to a certain threshold. Like any other of the characters, mentioned here, good men and great men alike are not born, but they must be created through a struggle.”

Like my predictions for Dr. Jack, I would agree that these comments were only partially correct. In one sense, I was correct about the focus of the flashbacks. The episode did not reveal many major answers about the island’s mysteries and instead opened up a whole new series of questions about Richard, Ben, Locke, and Jacob. The episode gave us our first general sketch of Ben’s past, but, to me, this broad outline was extremely unsatisfying. In essence, the flashbacks detailed Ben’s sudden transformation from introverted child who hates his thoughtless father into a mass murderer (who hates his thoughtless father even more). The episode did finally reveal the first glimpse of human motivations for Ben’s actions (hatred for his father and Dharma, by extension; jealousy toward Locke’s special connections). Nevertheless, his character still requires a tremendous deal of further exposition to show how he traveled from point A to point B. Roger Linus may have been a poor caretaker, and the Dharma Initiative may have been ill-conceived, but I would have liked to see some more genuine justifications for these murders.

I am still quite surprised to read that some viewers still cling to the belief that Ben still holds essentially good intentions. The Hostiles offered Ben the only opportunity for greatness in his life. He set aside all notions of morality in order to achieve that dream, and now he must continue to do everything in his power to ensure his legacy. The scene with Locke at the purge pit should have put to rest any notions of Ben’s altruistic motivations. In Jacob, Ben may have found the father figure that makes him feel special, but he certainly committed an extreme act of jealousy against Jacob’s new favored son. The ideal of protecting the island represents nothing more than a smoke screen for him to justify all actions that preserve his power. Locke was justified in calling Ben out as a hypocrite, but even he did not realize the extent of Ben’s hypocrisy. Like most people, I believe that Naomi’s people represent a dangerous force that intends to exploit the island for their own benefit. However, even though those people might be villains, that fact does not imply that Ben must automatically be ‘good’. He may turn out to be the lesser of two evils. At the time being, Ben essentially amounts to one selfish man who places his interest in controlling the island above all other concerns. After seeing his power slip away, Ben might decide to reform his ways.


I look forward to witnessing the continuing evolution of Hurley, Jin, Desmond, Michael, Sayid, Sawyer, Locke, Jack, and Ben in Season Four. These Lost souls will have 48 more episodes chance to find themselves once and for all. Each of these men will need to continue to decide between the pursuit of ‘good’ and ‘great’ deeds, and then face the consequences of those decisions. To quote fellow theorist LBN: “If even a fraction of this is correct, I'm ecstatic about what is to come in S4.” However, my hopes for Season Four do not center around time portals, alternate timelines, or parallel worlds. To me, debating these details makes about as much sense as arguing over whether the ghost of King Hamlet was authentic; the ghost only matters insofar as it affects Prince Hamlet’s life choices. The audience is entering Act Four of a Five Act play, and Jack’s flash-forward struggles show only the beginning of the trials ahead. The men and women of Lost will face challenges greater than anything we have seen so far.